What is the President’s re-election strategy anyway?Ok, I think I figured it out…
He’s Outta Here Already
Leaving aside whatever one’s judgement is about President Trump’s executive orders, leadership qualities, and any other slight ‘peccadillos’ he might have; I have had a hard time trying to figure out what is motivating the President to go against his own pollsters and White House strategists while battling for reelection. What exactly is his strategy for getting re-elected? Instead of even trying to expand his voting base; President Trump appears to be doing just the opposite. Why is he doubling and tripling down into a full Bannon, Miller “disrupt” approach in his Oklahoma, Texas and South Dakota appearances? There is every indication that the upcoming Super Spreader Tent Shows will continue in the same vein. Even holding these events tells us everything we need to know about the president’s commitment to science and successfully controlling Covid-19, in order that we may rejoin the economy and the rest of the world safely. Add to this, the purposely polarizing rhetoric on race, liberals, democrats and the confederacy and Trump’s illogical and hateful election season has begun.
How are we to understand this president’s seemingly self destructive behaviour in what will be his last 200 days in office? How are we to understand his “tin ear” about what America is going through now? The first and only thing we have to get used to, is that President Trump has already moved on from his accidental presidency. He is finished and has moved on. Most of us just haven’t realized it yet.
That same “charm offensive” which Trump relied on with allies and foes alike and which has proven generally unsuccessful, except for his unexpected election by electoral college in 2016; he is preparing to try on a domestic audience, (that would be us). Perhaps like other populist leaders, he truly believes that his vision of populism, anti-elitism, anti-liberalism, and racial divisiveness really does represent the majority of “real” Americans. Perhaps he truly believes that his appeal will lead to his receiving the majority of popular or at least the majority of electoral votes again in November. This is doubtful, especially when one notes that none of the efforts to hold the president or his administration accountable for their actions have succeeded. At some level then, one cannot blame President Trump for being emboldened and believing he can win again. In his heart of hearts, however, I believe President Trump knows it will not be enough, especially if the country cannot pull itself out of the covid crisis absent national leadership.
So what is Donald Trump’s plan?
Donald Trump’s only issue now is not to lose- to survive. And we know from his personal and business history, that he is a master at this. He is having to reimagine himself and play the long game, that is like-post-November 2020, election-long game. He will need to redefine “loser” and reinvent himself into a “winner,” if the polls and mood of the country are any indication. We intuitively know that if anyone can do this reinvention sleight of hand, it will be Donald Trump.
He understands the polls are against him. He understands he is losing. He understands he is going down. What we know about Trump is that he is a fighter, a street fighter, and a bully. So first he will double down and the rest of us will assume he must have something, know something we don’t, and we’ll think to ourselves, “oh, maybe he is right…” He will continue to be racially provocative and then begin to use empty threats attempting to falsify reality in front of us. But his main pitch to us over and over, will be that If it weren’t for covid, the economy would be soaring, “better than ever before in history…More black and brown people employed than ever…” This is how he will go out, claiming this core fiction as a lasting achievement.
Because he doesn’t like to lose, the long odds are that he will drop out before the election in order not to. I prefer the following scenario however. The survivor in him is thinking ahead. He is secretly planning his recovery and reemergence, trying to salvage what he perceives as his ability to rise again. The only way to resurrect his good name is to take advantage of post election opportunities and to begin some sort of business-entertainment endeavor and monetizing his post White House era. I suspect he hasn’t even shared these motivating sensibilities and ambitions out loud with his campaign crew or even Jared and Ivanka yet. He is doubling down, stoking the opposition, using fear, resentment, and the politicization of the pandemic in order to draw his loyal base closer to him. He has made sure to check off his campaign promises one by one for his ferociously loyal adherents in order to bring them with him for the post game show.
In spite of GOP leaders in the Congress beseeching the president to change his tone on covid 19 and lower his racially charged rhetoric; he will not of course. The GOP is still playing at winning, but Trump, long disconnected from their interests, has moved on and his coattails are not what they were. The GOP in Congress will wake up to the fact that they have backed the wrong horse in President Trump in order to maximize their judicial appointments and keep themselves in power. They will have to ask themselves quickly, I’m afraid, if their actions and tenacious apologies for the Trump brand was worth it. I am not quite sure that the GOP in Congress have given nearly as much thought to losing their seats as the President has his. Many will lose their seats, perhaps resulting in a “blue” Senate, and the cleavages within the party will be long lasting and frankly leave a shattered unrecognizable republican party to be rebuilt.
Perhaps deep down, Donald Trump believes- he will get lucky in the outside lane gambling on a “hail mary pass,” which in this case is The Bradley Effect. The Bradley Effect assumes that we cannot trust the polls since being pro-trump is “unpopular” and therefore people will not answer the pollsters honestly. But, when they get inside that voting booth; they will vote for their true hero, Donald Trump. This is the variation on his narcissistic view that the “people” can’t not really love him. But, just in case, the confederate yankees won’t all turn out for him, there must be another endgame in the mind of the president. And there is.
Trump claims and will continue to claim that the economy was unprecedentedly successful before Covid. He will claim success on this and that covid 19 “unfairly” upended his upward economic trajectory, and use his single minded focus on “getting back,” “starting school in the fall,” all in order to attempt to give voters the idea that he is leading us in “going back” to something familiar, secure and normal. In the meantime, President Trump in his messaging will not acknowledge what is all around him: the illness, the death, the unemployment and longevity of the Novel coronavirus continuing with no serious planning, all creating greater poverty and misery. The president has never understood that science and extinguishing the pandemic will be the only route to an “economic return.” Unfortunately for President Trump, we already understand that the non campaigning, campaigner, Joseph Biden will engender lots more “getting back to normal cred” and secure fuzzy feelings than Mr. Trump ever did. And this is just what the citizenry need right now…We need some relief.
Ultimately, President Trump will leave office, hope his luck doesn’t run out and he won’t end up with legal charges against him. He will continue to rail against immigration, stoke racial division and tout the virtues of the confederacy. He will keep close those faithful to his extremism. He will claim to have left office as a purist, a populist and true believer, and bring his ferocious devotees to Fox and then on to his post election $6.95/month media and entertainment venture. Unlike the post presidencies of other living presidents; Trump will not travel the world making sure the homeless have walls, nor will he commit to travel to other countries to ensure that elections are fair, or look forward to a significant future on the political scene and even perhaps the Supreme Court. The Trump post presidency will be another Trump enterprise.
His new media empire will be the lingering part of his presidency which continues to distort, create fake news, influence the population and use media and social media to manipulate. The position or veracity of his media positions is immaterial. All the while, we, the citizens of the country, and the new leadership group will be left to pick up the pieces, correct the damages, resolve the deficit, build a reliable public health infrastructure, and rebuild the integrity of our government institutions and image in order to recover our dignity as Americans. The dangerous presidency of Donald Trump will unfortunately still be upon us for many years to come.
Suzanne Rosenberg teaches in the History Department at Bergen Community College
srosenberg1@bergen.edu
